24/10/2024
“KRISTINE” IS NOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN ILOCOS SUR; BENGUET SIGNAL LOWERED TO NO. 2
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 21
Severe Tropical Storm (TRAMI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 24 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today.
Location of Center (4:00 PM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Santa Lucia, Ilocos Sur (17.1°N, 120.2°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 145 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement:
Westward slowly
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 730 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3
Wind threat:Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
LUZON:
Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan
TCWS No.2
Wind threat:Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
LUZON:
Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, and Bulacan
TCWS No.1
Wind threat:Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
Batanes, Metro Manila, Rizal, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, the northern portion of mainland Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Araceli, San Vicente, Dumaran, Roxas) including Calamian Islands, Cuyo, and, Kalayaan Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
VISAYAS:
Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya Islands, Iloilo, Bantayan Islands, Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Calbayog City, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Santo Nino)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 22 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE, the northeasterly windflow, and southwesterly windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today (24 October): The rest of the country outside Wind Signal areas.
• Tomorrow (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, and Davao Region.
• Saturday (26 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Zamboanga Norte, Siquijor, Bohol, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands.
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of around 1.0 to 2.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Zambales. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 10 issued at 2:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and the western and central seaboards of Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 9A issued at 5:00 PM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
• Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of Zambales and Pangasinan.
o Up to 6.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region, the seaboard of Cagayan Valley and Lubang Islands; the western seaboards of Bataan and Batangas.
o Up to 5.5 m: The western seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Calamian Islands.
o Up to 4.5 m: The western seaboards of northern Palawan including Kalayaan Islands; the seaboard of northern Aurora.
o Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
• Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 4.0 m: The southern seaboard of Quezon, the remaining seaboard of MIMAROPA, the western and southern seaboards of Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental.
o Up to 3.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora, the seaboards of northern Aurora including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, and Catanduanes; the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur.
o Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.
o Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
• Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
o Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of the country.
o Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• KRISTINE is forecast to move westward or west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region tomorrow (25 October) afternoon.
• In the extended outlook, there is a developing forecast situation wherein KRISTINE will be looping over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday and Monday and move eastward or east northwestward towards the general direction of the PAR region. However, this scenario heavily depends on the behavior of the weather disturbance east of the PAR region which is expected to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
• KRISTINE is forecast to re-intensify as it moves over the West Philippine Sea. While it is likely that the tropical cyclone will remain a severe tropical storm in the next five days, the chance for it to be upgraded into a typhoon is not ruled out.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: http://tinyurl.com/kristineph
